Measurement of 2026-08-31 · updated daily
3/5 meters are on warning today.
Shiller CAPE: 42.2
Buffett indicator: 231.8
Household equity allocation (US): 45.8
Yield curve (10y − 3m, US): 0.8
Credit gap (BIS): US -12 · XM -18 · CN -8
None of these meters predicts when a bubble pops — even Warren Buffett exited years too early in 1969 and 1999. What they can do: show when expected returns were historically low and the odds of a large drawdown elevated. Red means “historically exceptionally expensive”, not “sell tomorrow”.